Weekly Market Updates

Fresh US strikes and slower diplomacy keep Hormuz risk firmly in focus. Hopes for a near-term breakthrough in the Iran conflict were tempered after US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said a deal could still take a few days, even as Washington launched fresh strikes in southern Iran. The attacks, described by the US as defensive, targeted boats allegedly attempting to lay mines and missile launch sites, reinforcing the message that freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz remains a red line for Washington. Talks in Doha suggest diplomacy is still alive, with discussions centred on reopening the strait, Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile and the possible release of frozen Iranian funds. However, Tehran made clear that a final agreement is not close, and key details on Hormuz management remain unresolved. For energy markets, the combination of cautious diplomacy and continued military activity means uncertainty remains elevated, with oil and gas prices likely to stay sensitive to both political signals and operational disruption.